Take a drive in Texas on Interstate 45 between Houston and Dallas or I-20 between Fort Worth and El Paso, and you will see dozens and dozens of tractor trailers. They are two of the busiest highways in the country for trucks — and two routes where Aurora Innovation is operating completely autonomous semis.
"It's using lasers, radar, and cameras to look all around it and see the other cars, see the other trucks on the road, and figure out how to drive safely," said Chris Urmson, Aurora founder and CEO. He talked with CNBC's Phil LeBeau for more than three hours as they rode in the cab of an autonomous Aurora truck.
With 20 driverless trucks currently on the road and plans to grow the autonomous fleet to 200 trucks by the end of this year, Aurora is targeting major growth over the next several years. The company's selling point is that it says an autonomous truck can operate more efficiently and at a lower cost than a semi with a driver behind the wheel.
"We can help them [truck operators] save on fuel economy," Urmson said. "We can move goods more quickly and then we can fill the need when they can't hire amazing drivers for their teams."
Ravi Shanker, transportation analyst with Morgan Stanley, estimates that "an autonomous fleet should be nearly 7.5X as profitable as a human-driven fleet today."
Bank of America, meanwhile, estimates "Aurora services will cost ~$0.85 per mile versus approximately $1.30 per mile for human driver wages and benefits, before considering indirect labour costs."
With its next generation of driverless trucks to hit the road, Aurora believes its "driver as a service" business model, where customers pay by the mile driven, will be attractive to shipping and freight customers looking to lower costs.
A shortage of truck drivers in the U.S. has freight firms looking for reliable service at a lower cost. Autonomous trucks have the potential to roll for up to 20 hours a day, while a truck driver's hours are limited by federal laws that require drivers to take breaks.
Sean Wu, CEO of the online shipping marketplace uShip, said he understands the appeal of a driverless truck when it comes to lowering costs, but he questions how many shipping firms will want to ditch their drivers.
"The drivers do more than just move the rig. There is judgement. There is customer service. There is protection," Wu told CNBC. "There is just a lot more to think about than 'Hey they are moving a truck from point A to point B.'"
The Department of Transportation estimates there are approximately 3.5 million Class 8 semitrucks on the road in the U.S. Only a fraction are autonomous, but the market is growing, and Wall Street sees huge potential. Kodiak AI, Gatik and Tesla are also developing autonomous vehicles.
Aurora CEO Urmson said he knows there are plenty of skeptics, including those who will continue to question the safety of a driverless truck rolling down the highway at 65 or 70 mph.
"We've got millions of miles of experience," he said. "We put this through 15 million tests before we put it out on the road."
As we completed our freight run in Palmer, Texas, what stood out was the fact the ride was uneventful with no disruptions. The truck pulled off the highway once for less than a minute to reset the hazard lights which had come on for some unknown reason. Otherwise, over the course of three hours on I-45, we saw more than a few double takes from truck drivers passing by who looked twice when they saw nobody behind the wheel.
For Urmson, it is another 200 miles where Aurora's autonomous driving technology has delivered a shipment. Since it began testing its AV technology on public roads in 2021, Aurora has logged more than 3 million miles. Most of those included a human safety operator behind the wheel in case the technology failed.
After losing more than $800 million in 2025, Aurora is targeting positive free cash flow in 2028, driven by a substantial increase in the number of autonomous trucks on the road.
"We've been able to put out timelines and we've basically hit those timelines," he said.
Clarification: This story has been updated to reflect when Aurora started testing its AV technology and the number of miles it has logged and when Aurora is targeting positive free cash flow.
