As Anthropic barrels toward a potential $2 trillion market cap on the Nasdaq, one research firm is valuing the artificial intelligence company at a mere $150 billion and says Wall Street is about to face an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility."
In a report on Tuesday, independent financial research provider New Constructs called Anthropic's upcoming offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026."
To reach its desired valuation, the firm estimates Anthropic would need to record double the trailing year of profit for Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company. Nvidia's net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic's revenue in 2025 was $4.6 billion as the company racked up a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the company's prospectus.
Anthropic's mounting operating losses coupled with emerging competition from a plethora of open-source models led New Constructs to conclude that, "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business."
"Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits," the firm wrote.
David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, has built a reputation on Wall Street as a notorious bear on IPOs. He's been right in the past.
New Constructs called WeWork "the most ridiculous IPO of 2019," ahead of the office-sharing company's planned offering. WeWork had been valued privately at $47 billion, but just six weeks after the New Constructs report, the company pulled its IPO amid weak demand and intense criticism surrounding its financials. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in 2023.
"While Anthropic offers more to society than WeWork ever did, at a $2 trillion valuation, its IPO presents far bigger risks and is positioned to be a far bigger rip off of U.S. capital markets," New Constructs wrote, adding that the IPO's purpose isn't to provide wealth for public markets investors, but rather liquidity for the company's Wall Street backers.
Anthropic didn't respond to a request for comment.
New Constructs was also bearish on Allbirds' IPO in 2021. The shoe company debuted on the Nasdaq and reached a valuation of $4.1 billion on its opening day. Earlier this year, the company sold its assets to American Exchange Group for an estimated $39 million, pivoting to AI in the process.
Trainer's firm has also missed the mark on calls. Its "most ridiculous" 2020 IPO choice was DoorDash, which the firm also compared to WeWork, calling the food delivery company "similarly disadvantaged."
However, DoorDash has held up on the public market. The stock shot up on its first day in December 2020, giving the company a market cap of over $60 billion. That number has since swelled to $83 billion.
In an interview with CNBC in 2021, Trainer acknowledged that "crazy stuff happens" and New Constructs doesn't always get it right.
"I can't let that bother me," he said at the time. "I have to stay true to what I think is right."
Anthropic still hasn't made its prospectus public, so New Constructs hasn't seen the actual filing. However, the firm cited figures that have been reported, including from the New York Times, which reported in September that the company was on pace to generate $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026.
Anthropic claimed at the end of July that its annualized revenue run rate was up sevenfold year-over-year to $65 billion.
The New Constructs report also notes that Anthropic's assertion that AI could pose "a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity" is another reason why investors should avoid the IPO.
"While we were not fortunate enough to be one of the few to whom Anthropic's S-1 was selectively disclosed, the reports of the leaked financials reveal more than enough to assess the gargantuan risks of investing in this IPO," New Constructs wrote.