Is its category moving in its favor or against it?
The outlook for Saudi Cable's category is favorable for cable demand: the Saudi wire and cable market, valued at USD 1.98 billion in 2025, is estimated to reach USD 2.53 billion by 2031 at a 4.10% compound annual growth rate over 2026-2031, and Saudi Energy added 55 transmission substations during 2025 while investing SAR 88.2 billion (USD 23.5 billion) in expanding the grid, battery storage, and smart grids. Material-price exposure, however, can offset some of this benefit through production costs.
Copper, aluminum, and polymer compounds account for 70% to 85% of cable production costs; higher raw material prices largely account for the rise in those costs.
2Risk Factors
Which risks could break the thesis, and what would warn of them?
The recovery case is vulnerable to funding execution because Saudi Cable remains dependent on restoring working capital. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 fell 39.72% to SAR 68.28 million from SAR 113.27 million in the same period of 2025. Saudi Cable attributed the decline to severe liquidity constraints and lower customer prepayments, which restricted working capital.
The group's ability to continue as a going concern is subject to material uncertainty. At the end of September 2026, current liabilities exceeded current assets by SAR 671.40 million. Management prepared 2026 forecasts indicating net profit and positive cash flows, assuming cash injections through rights issue instruments and revenue growth based on future orders and tenders.
